The real estate market operates with various, not always easy concepts, including real and nominal prices. Simply put, the real price is the nominal price adjusted to the current level of inflation. For some time now, apartment prices in Poland have been soaring. What should we expect in 2023? A decrease in prices or maybe an increase? It should be emphasized that it is difficult to answer this question unambiguously. However, it is worth analyzing the topic step by step to make it easier to sense the right moment to buy an apartment.
Apartment prices are shaped by many factors. Their growth is influenced by limited credit availability due to high-interest rates. Higher apartment prices are also the result of rising construction material costs and labor, which is the cause of increasing inflation. It is worth mentioning that developers have been delaying their investments in the past year to maintain their margins. This has resulted in a decrease in the supply of apartments, and thus an increase in their prices. There is also growing talk of a new government program that will enable many people to purchase their first apartment or house, thanks to loans with a 2% interest rate. As more people will be able to afford housing, the interest in real estate will increase, and so will prices.
What, then, can cause a decline in property prices? Due to high-interest rates, many people have serious problems repaying their loans, which may motivate them to sell their property. This will automatically result in an increased supply of apartments on the market and thus a decrease in prices. Both inflation and the rising cost of living will likely lead to a situation where many people find it difficult to pay rent for their apartments. And when rents start to decrease, the value of real estate will begin to fall.
The housing market is one of the so-called submarkets that make up the real estate market. The housing market itself includes the secondary market, i.e., the sale of used properties, and the primary market, which considers the sale of new properties. The rental of these properties should also be mentioned here. Interest in new developer-built apartments is usually higher than in apartments on the secondary market.
A used apartment can be purchased at a price similar to that of a new property. Admittedly, a developer property still needs to be finished and furnished, but the satisfaction of being the first owner of a given property effectively motivates the purchase of an apartment on the primary market. So, what are the prices of properties in Poland nowadays, and what are the predictions?
According to the report of some services, the average price per square meter in February 2023 was the highest in Warsaw, at 13,870 PLN. The next places were occupied by cities such as Kraków and Wrocław, where you had to pay 12,207 PLN per square meter. Cheaper apartments during this period were in the Trójmiasto, where the price per square meter was 11,730 PLN. The cheapest apartments can be bought in Łódź, as the price per square meter here is 9,620 PLN.
Based on current and previous prices, it is observed that the average prices of apartments offered by developers have increased in cities such as Warsaw, Poznań, and Wrocław. They have slightly decreased in Gdańsk and Katowice. Apartment price forecasts for the near future are quite diverse. So, what can be expected in the real estate market later this year?
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An analysis of the real estate market in terms of the future indicates that the market is slowly stabilizing. The only more challenging situation is in smaller markets. There is a significant outflow of cash from clients, which also limits their creditworthiness. As a result, there are significantly fewer buyers and more sellers in these markets. Expert analysis of the real estate market reveals that the most significant chances for a price drop are seen in single-family homes and larger apartments. Cash customers will play a leading role. And those who will have to sell apartments in the near future will have to automatically lower their prices.
Rental apartments continue to be of great interest, despite the significant price increase. An analysis of the real estate market in terms of the coming months indicates that both the rental segment and the purchase of small apartments for personal use or as a capital investment will continue to drive the housing market. It should be noted that even the first decrease in interest rates may have a stimulating effect on the apartment sales market.
If you decide to buy a property, regardless of the apartment price forecasts for this or next year, contact us. We will help you analyze the contract before you sign it with a developer or a seller. It often contains abusive or inexplicable provisions. We are here to check the contract point by point and explain to you the benefits or risks that signing this document will generate.
Furthermore, we will check the property before the final handover of the keys. We have experienced and qualified engineers. All this to ensure that you do not invest money in a property that is not suitable for living or one that will require costly renovations from the start. Remember that any defects and shortcomings for the construction team are the developer's responsibility, and they must fix them. Our experts will take care of the safety in the new apartment. Remember that attractive apartment prices are not everything. Behind a suspiciously low price, there may be many unpleasant surprises
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